Hot Posts

6/recent/ticker-posts

France dislikes coalitions, so any new administration runs the risk of disintegrating quickly.


 Since the 1970s, Sweden has been governed by coalitions. Germany has not had a single-party government since 1961, and Italy has experienced multiparty rule since the early 1940s. The Netherlands last saw a single-party government in 1879.

In France, however, political leaders from both the left and right have ruled out a coalition government after Sunday’s snap election resulted in a parliament with three roughly equal blocs, none with a majority, and all with significantly different platforms.

"The new government must implement the New Popular Front’s programme, its whole programme, and nothing but its programme," said Manuel Bompard of the radical-left France Unbowed (LFI), the largest party in the left-green NFP alliance.

Mathilde Panot, another LFI deputy, was even clearer: "There must be an NFP government based on our programme," she said. "No coalition with the centrists or Les Républicains (LR). We are not compatible."

The NFP won 182 seats in the assembly, Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Together coalition returned 168 MPs, and Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) came third with 143. None are near the 289 seats required for a majority.

"I see the temptation of talks, of combinations to cobble together unnatural alliances," said Laurent Wauquiez of the centre-right LR, which has nearly 70 deputies. "They’ll happen without us. For us, no coalition, no sellout."

For their part, Macron’s centrists have accepted the idea of a broad coalition ranging from the moderate-left Socialist party (PS) to LR, acknowledging that a stable government requires compromise and cooperation. However, they refuse to collaborate with LFI.

"We cannot work with those who aim to divide the French people," said Benjamin Haddad, a Together MP. "I would oppose an NFP-led government and vote for any no-confidence motion against a cabinet containing ministers from LFI."

Such responses may be difficult for many Europeans to understand, as they look unhelpful for a country in need of a stable government that is acceptable to voters and lasts longer than a few weeks before being voted out by a majority of MPs.

At the national level, French politics and coalitions have not mixed for many years. This is partly due to a two-round electoral system that almost invariably produces single-party majorities without the need for coalitions.

The system was part of France’s response to the chaos of the Fourth Republic, which between 1946 and 1958 saw no fewer than 21 "revolving door" governments come and go, along with 16 prime ministers, some of whom lasted only days.

Coalitions, such as the NFP and its predecessor, Nupes, are formed before elections to maximize the chances of winning, with larger parties typically agreeing not to run candidates against a minor ally in a few seats.

However, once the election is over, the major party has rarely needed support to form a government. In 2012, an electoral pact with the Socialist party (PS) saw the Greens win 17 seats and become part of François Hollande's presidential majority. They left the government in 2014 over policy disagreements, without major consequence: Socialist prime minister Manuel Valls had enough support in parliament to pass laws without them.

"To put it bluntly: French political parties are not used to negotiating coalitions and compromises," said Isabelle Guinaudeau, a specialist in political competition and comparative politics at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS). "Each hopes to benefit from France’s majoritarian institutions to implement all its agenda."

That approach was still evident after Macron disrupted French politics, triggering the collapse of the mainstream centre-right and left in 2017. In the 2022 parliamentary elections, Guinaudeau noted, "Macron did not obtain an absolute majority. But did he try to negotiate a coalition or support in exchange for policy concessions? No."

Instead, Macron opted for a "strong-arm procedure," resorting to special constitutional powers, such as the unpopular article 49.3, to push legislation through without a parliamentary vote – a strategy that works only as long as there is no majority of MPs willing to collapse the government.

In France’s new parliament, however, that will be impossible. Any government relying on support from just one of the three main blocs is necessarily doomed – unless it has negotiated at least a few basic positions and red lines.

"So either French party officials learn to negotiate and set up new types of coalitions," said Guinaudeau, "or we have good chances of seeing the next government fall due to a no-confidence motion – triggering an institutional crisis."

Post a Comment

0 Comments